State of the union of investing. Irrational Exuberance. What next? Value

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By gerardrego on November 12, 2013 • ( 2 Comments )

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Warren Buffet

A few slides from a closed group disruptive coffee brainstorms going on . What is the state of the union in investing in disruptive opportunities and tech?  The indicators are very interesting as entrepreneurs, investors and executives in the ecosystem.

1.>99% lack business models that are fundamental, most searching for what works?

2. Business models are not “ecosystem” play

3.Valuations are in the “esoteric” when the obvious is clear, no business models, ecosystems and no revenue

4.Startup and IPO Billion $ valuations on the rise, without fundamentals

5.What next? Look at 2000 and history’s next cycle (“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”, Warren Buffet)

ON VALUATIONS. WHY FUNDAMENTALS MATTER? TESLA IS ONLY ONE EXAMPLE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.
http://gerardjrego.com/2013/09/18/on-valuations-why-fundamentals-matter-tesla-is-only-one-example-of-irrational-exuberance/#comment-29

PINTEREST TO TEST ADVERTISING – SEARCH FOR BUSINESS MODELS AND PROFIT POOLS

http://gerardjrego.com/2013/09/20/pinterest-to-test-advertising-search-for-business-models-and-profit-pools/

                       

Lots of headlines, no meat in the data. IPOs, startup acquisitions, listed companies flying, stock markets at their peaks. All indicators of behavioral finance and what’s to come next.

Is this the perfect storm? Look at the data. Cash conversion cycles going up, Stock turns going down, GMROI going down, access to cheap credit reflected in financing of growth (not from revenue, CCC) and PE multiples of what investors “feel” are quite off the charts.

 

However this is what makes the opportunities to invest or startup a great opportunity to disrupt. What we see as the opportunities are?

1.Mass Personalization2.Hyperlocal Marketplace business models built around Insights3.Hyperlocal Commerce

4.Hyperlocal Intermediation

5.Hyperlocal Insight from Analytics technologies

6.Hyperlocal Sensor Intelligence technologies to Marketplace business model APIs

7.Hyperlocal Connected Ecosystems

North America, EU, are great than 80% of the market. Core sectors Agriculture, BFSI, Healthcare, Retail, et al

What is clear is that the implosion of capital in current investments are inevitable and that is the good part. The real value comes out to play. We are working on these opportunities that we can leverage and create value. It’s time to read “Broadbandits: Inside the $750 Billion Telecom Heist” again.  http://www.amazon.com/Broadbandits-Inside-Billion-Telecom-Heist/dp/0471660612

Related articles

• Mass Personalization – What to invest in or startup? (gerardjrego.com)
• Anatomy of a Bubble (theburningplatform.com)
• TRADER: Twitter Stock Is The Next Tesla Stock (businessinsider.com)
• Investors think Snapchat is worth $4 billion. That’s insane. (washingtonpost.com)
• To Buy Or Not To Buy? The Twitter Question (techcrunch.com)
• The ‘Unbelievable’ Revenue Growth Trajectory To Justify Twitter’s Price (zerohedge.com)
• Aswath Damodaran on Twitter: Cheap at $6B, Fair at $10B (valuewalk.com)
• Tesla Has Been Getting Crushed – Here’s Everything That’s Been Going Wrong (TSLA) (businessinsider.com)
• Irrational Exuberance Never Gets Old (theburningplatform.com)
• How I Explain Amazon’s Stock Performance (safehaven.com)

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Tagged as: IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE, Marketplace business, NASDAQ, Warren Buffet